Seasonality is neutral. I found a good bearish pattern for today. From open to close. High confidence level. Here’s the numbers. I’ll short the market on open. It triggers only if today’s SPY’s open is above friday high.
| NT | %W | PF | AW | AL | MAE + | MAE – |
| 14 | 14,29 | 0,1 | 0,3 | -0,49 | 0,73 | -1,73 |
From → Uncategorized
This mathematical effect goes back to its discoverer Claude Shannon:
Markowitz portfolio theory is entirely based on the Shannon's Demon Effect: a portfolio of financial instruments or trading systems can beat the average return of all its components only if their correlation is low or, even better, is negative.
These computational effects are also stronger the often the portfolio is rebalanced.
This incredible edge coming from diversification can even transform a two systems portfolio with negative returns in one single low correlated and frequently rebalanced porfolio with a positive average return.
In this file:
I show how overall results are boosted by Shannon's Demon with 3 simple strategies that are rebalanced daily. One buys long each night from close to next day's open, one from close to next day's close and one from open to close (intraday). It is clearly evident how much overnight trading has a low correlation with other time frame strategy proxies and why it should be included in a trader's portfolio.
>>>>>>> Disclaimer <<<<<<<<
All content on this site is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is NOT a recommendation or advice to buy or sell any securities. I may hold positions for myself in the securities or industries mentioned here. Past results in the trading systems and quantitative studies sold are not a guarantee for future results. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading securities. Your use of any information on this site is entirely at your own risk.
PLEASE READ ALL OF THE FOLLOWING TERMS AND CONDITIONS OF SERVICE BEFORE USING THIS SITE.
NIGHTLY PATTERNS is to be used for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, nor relied on as information in making investments. NIGHTLY PATTERNS is not a financial advisory service and therefore all trades both written and verbal, documentation on the website or received via email, is not an offer to Buy, Sell or participate in Futures markets. NIGHTLY PATTERNS is not a registered broker nor is it a registered dealer.
All content on this site is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is NOT a recommendation or advice to buy or sell any securities. I may hold positions for myself in the securities or industries mentioned here. Past results in the trading systems and quantitative studies sold are not a guarantee for future results. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading securities. Your use of any information on this site is entirely at your own risk.
Futures, stocks, and spot currency trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures, stocks, and forex markets. The rule here is do not trade with money that you cannot afford to lose.
Use this information serves only as a starting point for doing additional independent research in order to allow you to form your own opinion regarding investments and trading. NIGHTLY PATTERNS is not a securities adviser nor in the business to provide trading advisory service. NIGHTLY PATTERNS is a trading education provider and all market and trading opinions are strictly for educational purpose and not meant to be duplicated by others. If you copy any trade and lose, it will be at your own risk. Past performance is NOT a reflection of future success. These performance numbers are by no mean to insight people to sign for these services but rather results of past trade ideas. Any and all information contained in the NIGHTLY PATTERNS website is compiled for the convenience and use of the site’s visitors and subscribers. It is provided without responsibility for its accuracy. Any site visitor or subscriber having access to information contained within this website is under the strict condition that any errors or omissions shall not provide the basis of any claim, demand or cause of action against or anyone affiliated therewith.
This information is for educational and instructional purposes only. It is not intended to provide tax, legal or investment advice. Talk to your professional adviser prior to making any investments. This website is neither a solicitation for, nor an offer to, buy or sell futures, stocks or Forex. No representation is being made that any account will, or is likely to, achieve any profits or losses similar to those discussed on the website. Past performance of this trading method is not indicative of future results. Certain aspects of NIGHTLY PATTERNS trading results are based upon hypothetical trading performance information, performed on simulated account without any consideration for commissions or slippage. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations, unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under or over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as a lack of liquidity. Simulated programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that an account will always likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
U.S. GOVERNMENT REQUIRED DISCLAIMER
COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION FUTURES AND FOREX TRADING HAVE LARGE POTENTIAL REWARDS, BUT ALSO LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. YOU MUST BE AWARE OF THE RISKS AND BE WILLING TO ACCEPT THEM IN ORDER TO INVEST IN THE FUTURES AND OPTIONS MARKETS. DON'T TRADE WITH MONEY YOU CAN'T AFFORD TO LOSE. THIS IS NEITHER A SOLICITATION NOR AN OFFER TO BUY/SELL FUTURES OR FOREX. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED ON THIS WEB SITE. THE PAST PERFORMANCE OF ANY TRADING SYSTEM OR METHODOLOGY IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
For additional information download this: http://www.nfa.futures.org/compliance/sfp_disclosure.pdf
Marco Simioni
NIGHTLY PATTERNS - Overnight Trading