Has the big bear stock market begun?
“It’s all about imperfect simmetry.”
Let’s go on. You can read the previous article here.
Is the big broadening pattern going to be completed with a big fall down at least to 2200 or 2100 price zone of the Emini future?
Well, it’s not easy to answer the question. But there’s another interesting pattern forming right now: it’s a perfect rising head and shoulder. You can see the blue neck line at 2810 price zone.
That’s a tremendous reaction price zone. I circled in blue all the time that zone has been tested, both rising from below and falling from above. That price zone is a key level.
I added 4 blue vertical lines to outline the lows of the head and shoulder formation. When the 2 lows width is similar, the odds the head and shoulder triggers are very high. That’s the case, as you can see from the picture.
Are stock markets in troubles? Yes.
We have a US Presidential Impeachment procedure starting, monetary markets problems on Repos with the Fed pumping billions of dollars to keep equilibrium and all the big problems I mentioned in the previous article…
I could be wrong… It’s not easy to time the tops. Let’s see.
That’s all folks!
Marco Simioni
Nightly Patterns
Marco Simioni
NIGHTLY PATTERNS - Overnight Trading 
You just may be right, Marco. Could you answer one question for me? On your Quantfor page, how do you calculate the returns on the (ES) nightly strategy? If the return is, for example, 10% for a given month, what does that mean? Ten percent of what? On another note, it’s interesting that the SVXY strategy we were discussing has been in bonds for several weeks. It’s beginning to look like a good move. Warmly,Alex
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Hi Alex, well I consider investing 40% on equity and 60% on cash. I take the $ gain and divide by the futures margin in $ to get the percentage. If we get a 10% gain for example, I then make 10%*0,4 = 4%. 4% is the real gain of total capital dedicated to Nightly Patterns (equity + cash).
I’ll be back on that strategy with an e-mail!
Thanks,
Marco
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