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Overnight price action analysis with a rare bearish bar pattern

January 7, 2020

4 trades

It has been a boring December concerning overnight trading. I’ve been monitoring my patterns finder algo every night like always, but  there weren’t any patterns triggering or they were only mixed.

It doesn’t mean the algos aren’t working anymore, some sideline periods do exist.

Do you remember last lazy summer? It was just before a good profitable autumn.

Anyway, I want to discuss briefly why last night I didn’t send any alert:

  • I had mixed seasonality.
  • I had 9 bullish patterns triggering

Where’s the problem? I could have jumped in. But wait a minute, I looked carefully at the chart and look for a rare bar pattern in order to find one to confirm the action.

My backtesting work resulted in a very strong bearish pattern: very few rules, 4 instances, all of them bearish.

I discovered yesterday’s morning this rare bearish pattern:

O0<L1 – O1<L2 – O2>H3 – O3<C4 – L2>H3 (equity curve’s above)

Sometimes rare patterns win the battle between bulls and bears.

The excellent trade requires seasonality on the right side of the patterns triggering. Yesterday it wasn’t. And if I can find rare pattern triggering, I want it on the right side too. Otherwise, waiting on the sidelines is the rule.

This prudent behaviour prevent us from a little loss this morning.

Hope to see better price action later,

Marco Simioni

Nightly Patterns

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