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Coronavirus White Swan is becoming a Black Swan? #3

February 24, 2020

coronavirus

What should only be there, now it’s here. Well, it has been quite a shocking weekend with Coronavirus new from very very close places to me. I live near Venice and now, Italy has become the third place with highest virus numbers.

Perfect time for writing and staying at home safe like in a castle. Well, I think if it’s not black yet, the swan is dirty grey now.

Well, the markets are believing the colour of the Swan is changing now. Let’s see.

What’s happened the night after a more than 3% drop in SPY since 1993?

Here’s the equity curve…

3 percent

That’s an easy question. All the following nights (10 instances) the market had dropped.

I’ve got many bullish patterns triggering but the price behaviour is too dangerous with this scary pattern described above: 10 bearish nights out of 10 since 1993.

Let’s wait in cash! It’s too early for the bulls. The bears are holding the game.

Marco Simioni

Nightly Patterns

 

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4 Comments
  1. Alex Argyros permalink

    Good email, Marco.  I agree with your prudent position.

    Like

  2. Melvyn Tan permalink

    What do you determine your night session to be? 4pm to 930am?
    On Mon, Feb 24, 2020 at 1:10 PM NIGHTLY PATTERNS – Overnight Trading wrote:
    > Marco Simioni posted: ” What should only be there, now it’s here. Well, it > has been quite a shocking weekend with Coronavirus new from very very close > places to me. I live near Venice and now, Italy has become the third place > with highest virus numbers. Perfect time for writi” >

    Like

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