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Coronavirus, the Black Swan is coming out of the water… 1929 is finally here? #5

March 23, 2020

Black swan out of the water

I can see it clearly now… It’s out of the water, It’s a Black Swan!

These are the most dangerous days to trade. It’s a month without trading at all. We are waiting out of the battle. And we are not losing money. Don’t get bored!

There is no risk management strategy holding with a minus 5% gap down on Monday morning when the floor opens. A big jump down and the CME stops trading at all.

I know you wish you were short on the weekend, but I’m not a magician!

I’m attaching below my 45 rolling days indicator chart. Please note how we break the 2008 and 2001 big lows! We are about at -30 zone now. Nearly twice the deep value of 2001 bear market. When they break they break hard!

ROLLING 45 23-3-2020

What does it means? I think the markets thinks about something that has nothing to compare with 2001 and 2008 bear markets. Something much more deep and dangerous.

With today’s low we reached -36% since February’s all time highs and VIX reached 80 last week.

Please remember 1929… and don’t get bored! I’m discussing soon the option of trading the Micro Future instead of the Emini.

Marco Simioni

Nightly Patterns

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