Greetings traders,
Last Monday’s short trade – the entry was on July the 6th of 2020 – is described below:
Trade entry – Emini future price = 3173,25
Trade exit – Emini future price = 3152,25
Stop loss triggered – none
Take profit triggered – none
Trade gain = 21 Emini points
Trade gain in $ per contract = $ 1050
The entry was on the blue circle on the left and the exit was on the second blue circle on the right.
If you like to study deeper overnight trading results, please download my historical live trading results sheet here.
Regards,
Marco Simioni
Nightly Patterns
Greetings traders,
A long trade – the entry was on June the 30th of 2020 – is described below:
Trade entry – Emini future price = 3082,75
Trade exit – Emini future price = 3093
Stop loss triggered – none
Take profit triggered – none
Trade gain = 10,25 Emini points
Trade gain in $ per contract = $ 512,5
The entry was on the blue circle on the left and the exit was on the second blue circle on the right.
If you like to study deeper overnight trading results, please download my historical live trading results sheet here.
Regards,
Marco Simioni
Nightly Patterns
Greetings traders,
A long trade – the entry was on June the 29th of 2020 – is described below:
Trade entry – Emini future price = 3047
Trade exit – Emini future price = 3038,75
Stop loss triggered – none
Take profit triggered – none
Trade loss = -8,25 Emini points
Trade loss in $ per contract = $ -412,5
The entry was on the blue circle on the left and the exit was on the second blue circle on the right.
If you like to study deeper overnight trading results, please download my historical live trading results sheet here.
Regards,
Marco Simioni
Nightly Patterns
Greetings traders,
Last Monday’s short trade – the entry was on June the 8th of 2020 – is described below:
Trade entry – Emini future price = 3226
Trade exit – Emini future price = 3200,25
Stop loss triggered – none
Take profit triggered – none
Trade gain = 26,25 Emini points
Trade gain in $ per contract = $ 1312,5
The entry was on the blue circle on the left and the exit was on the second blue circle on the right.
If you like to study deeper overnight trading results, please download my historical live trading results sheet here.
Regards,
Marco Simioni
Nightly Patterns
Greetings traders,
It’s a pleasure for me to announce that Nightly Patterns can be auto-traded through managed accounts with Interactive Brokers. Trading activity is managed by Mario Randholme Luque of RANDHOLM & CO. an indipendent third party famous trader, from Lima, Perù.
Net returns and all details are available here:
If you have any questions, please fell free to write to:
nightlypatterns@hotmail.com – Marco Simioni
hola@randbots.com – Mario Randholm Luque
Greetings traders!
Here you can look at how QuantFor portfolio of strategies reacted to recent spring huge rise in volatility and ranges.
Remember! QuantFor main goal is to achieve CAGR above 60% and drawdowns below 10%. It’s not magic but it looks like.
Nightly Patterns perfectly detected the change in market regime and now is trading with the leveraged etfs version as we need in this regime.
Gold Minings system, experienced the worst turmoil but it’s coming out of the drawdown.
The Vix system perfectly managed to avoid the worst days and it’s still on track.
The Weekly portfolio showed is in a small drawdown, it’s a perfect time to jump in it.
The Adaptive portfolio showed a good strong return in January and March, highlithing the robustness of the strategies behind it.
Globally we are up 6,57% on the first three months, with the stock markets down on the white rabbit hole.
April is going well too.
If you haven’t joying QuantFor yet, please note that I have managed to reduce the capital requirements to only $92500 !!!
If you are interested in QuantFor service, just write me at:
quantfor@hotmail.com
Hope you will enjoy QuantFor trading,
Marco Simioni
Here we are. Deeply below the 200 SMA. You can find the Excel sheet and download it in the “trading results” page.
We had a bad luck start but we are coming back. Can you imagine the above numbers trading the Emini? It’s too dangerous, that’s why we need the leveraged etfs. If you’re still out, jump on board, you’re still in time!
Marco Simioni
Nightly patterns
What can we do if the bearish regime in the stock markets persists below 200 SMA? Well, the first and easy take away idea is to stay out in cash until the stock market (Emini, SPY, SPX) comes back above the 200 SMA.
If you remember from my stop loss tactic here, and here, my 1,3% stop loss is considered a “disaster stop loss” only above 200 SMA when the volatily and ranges are not as wild as below the 200 SMA where it becomes a normal stop loss.
Well, since 2009 we had always hit and run brief periods below the 200 SMA and we simply waited out of the market.
But now, the outlook is different. It’s probable we will face a long period, maybe many months or more than a year below 200 SMA. To manage overnight trading safely the US stock market, we could simply move from Emini to Micro futures, as I’ve previously mentioned in past articles.
But there’s a big problem with that: ranges are wild in the Micro futures too, and our stop loss trigger frequency would remain the same, only with a smaller amount of equity invested, halting Nightly Patterns performances too much. There would be too many profitable nights turned into stopped out trades.
The only way is to exploit Etfs. They aren’t trading in the overnight session, so no stop loss orders is active. I know, I know you would trade UPRO 3x leverage etf. But it’s too much. It can loose easily more than 20% in a single night (have a look at this month performances). Too much. We must count for the Black Swan too:
on the weekend between Friday the 13th and Monday the 16th of 2020, SPY opened with a gap down of 10,45%. Too much to be 3X fully invested. That’s why we need lower leverage with:
SSO (Proshares Ultra S&P 500) and SDS (Proshares Ultra Short S&P 500) Etfs
or for prudent traders, they can trade the SPY directly.
I’m trading 100% of my Nightly Patterns dedicated capital in both cases.
If you have any questions, I’ll be glad to answer,
Marco Simioni
I can see it clearly now… It’s out of the water, It’s a Black Swan!
These are the most dangerous days to trade. It’s a month without trading at all. We are waiting out of the battle. And we are not losing money. Don’t get bored!
There is no risk management strategy holding with a minus 5% gap down on Monday morning when the floor opens. A big jump down and the CME stops trading at all.
I know you wish you were short on the weekend, but I’m not a magician!
I’m attaching below my 45 rolling days indicator chart. Please note how we break the 2008 and 2001 big lows! We are about at -30 zone now. Nearly twice the deep value of 2001 bear market. When they break they break hard!
What does it means? I think the markets thinks about something that has nothing to compare with 2001 and 2008 bear markets. Something much more deep and dangerous.
With today’s low we reached -36% since February’s all time highs and VIX reached 80 last week.
Please remember 1929… and don’t get bored! I’m discussing soon the option of trading the Micro Future instead of the Emini.
Marco Simioni
Well, we’re out out the market watching the crash from the safe window and getting bored. Bears are overcoming the bulls. It was a 123,5 ES points breaking gap when futures started trading again this morning, we avoided it, don’t get bored! I know you wish you were short…
Do you remember last Friday’s article and my rolling indicator? With today’s breaking gap we crashed all the records below -16%!
Nobody can show you where are the stock markets going for sure. But it’s funny to guess it.
I’ve circled with the blue balls the other times the overnight rolling indicator I’ve described here. The above chart collects monthly data from 1993. One blue ball is in the middle of the 2001/2002 bear market. Two balls are at the beginning and at the end of 2008/2009 bear market. And the last one was back in 2011 late summer.
Are we in a bear market or in a correction? Well, technically today we got as far as -20,5% from last all time high. So, yes we are in bear market.
The stock market tested last week the 200 SMA on the daily chart and today it decided to go deeply lower it. So yes we are in a bear market.
The VIX is roaring above 50 and its futures term structure is deeply on backwardation so yes we are in a bear market.
How long shall it last? Nobody knows. From a few days to a several months, maybe more than a year. Let’s see and make some funny (hopefully wrong) forecasts.
Have you seen the blue ball on the right bottom of the chart?
You’re right! There we should go to have something similar to 1929, a 90% drawdown from about 3400 all time high of the ES future.
And remember guys, in 1929 we haven’t computers, internet and algos fighting, there were only people shouting prices for orders… So is it possible to go lower than 2008 big lows? Definitely yes. It is possible. Is it probable? It depends on the crowds.
Have you seen that smooth trendline starting from the 2008 lows?
There’s an old say: every trendline must be broken…
Marco Simioni
Nightly Patterns
P.S. And yes, don’t worry! I’m still alive, healthy and safe here in Italy! 😉
Marco Simioni
NIGHTLY PATTERNS - Overnight Trading 