Coronavirus is driving the stock markets down and down, crashing all the algos.
When the overnight range gets to very extreme levels there aren’t any stats working as usual.
The most dangerous factor is huge volatility that triggers stop loss orders much more frequently. As my primary goal is to keep my stop loss triggers frequency at minimum level, I have many filters that keep me out of the market, though there are many patterns triggering night after night.
When the stock market is in a wild regime traders must be extremely selective and trade only the trades showing the highest odds. That’s what I do at Nightly Patterns.
One of the indicators that help me staying out at the window in the corner is the rolling sum of the last 45 days SPY overnight returns. Normal levels for this indicator are +5% / -5%.
Now we are below -9%. I recorded the minimum level at -15,91% the 21st of September 2001 in the middle of the Dot Com Crash.
Looking at the chart above, we can easily show other 6 times (big spiking valleys) with lower values than today’s one.
There’s a lot of room for other big bearish overnight sessions yet.
Marco Simioni
Nightly Patterns
What should only be there, now it’s here. Well, it has been quite a shocking weekend with Coronavirus new from very very close places to me. I live near Venice and now, Italy has become the third place with highest virus numbers.
Perfect time for writing and staying at home safe like in a castle. Well, I think if it’s not black yet, the swan is dirty grey now.
Well, the markets are believing the colour of the Swan is changing now. Let’s see.
What’s happened the night after a more than 3% drop in SPY since 1993?
Here’s the equity curve…
That’s an easy question. All the following nights (10 instances) the market had dropped.
I’ve got many bullish patterns triggering but the price behaviour is too dangerous with this scary pattern described above: 10 bearish nights out of 10 since 1993.
Let’s wait in cash! It’s too early for the bulls. The bears are holding the game.
Marco Simioni
Nightly Patterns
Greetings traders,
Last Wednesday’s short trade – the entry was on February the 19th of 2020 – is described below:
Trade entry – Emini future price = 3387,5
Trade exit – Emini future price = 3379,5
Stop loss triggered – none
Take profit triggered – none
Trade gain = 8 Emini points
Trade gain in $ per contract = $ 400
The entry was on the blue circle on the left and the exit was on the second blue circle on the right.
If you like to study deeper overnight trading results, please download my historical live trading results sheet here.
Regards,
Marco Simioni
Nightly Patterns
Greetings traders,
Last Wednesday’s short trade – the entry was on February the 12th of 2020 – is described below:
Trade entry – Emini future price = 3380,5
Trade exit – Emini future price = 3362,25
Stop loss triggered – none
Take profit triggered – none
Trade gain = 18,25 Emini points
Trade gain in $ per contract = $ 912,5
The entry was on the blue circle on the left and the exit was on the second blue circle on the right.
If you like to study deeper overnight trading results, please download my historical live trading results sheet here.
Regards,
Marco Simioni
Nightly Patterns
Greetings traders,
Tuesday’s short trade – the entry was on February the 11th of 2020 – is described below:
Trade entry – Emini future price = 3357
Trade exit – Emini future price = 3373,5
Stop loss triggered – none
Take profit triggered – none
Trade loss = 16,5 Emini points
Trade loss in $ per contract = $ -825
The entry was on the blue circle on the left and the exit was on the second blue circle on the right.
Regards,
Marco Simioni
Nightly Patterns
Greetings traders,
Thursday’s short trade – the entry was on February the 6th of 2020 – is described below:
Trade entry – Emini future price = 3343,75
Trade exit – Emini future price = 3331,75
Stop loss triggered – none
Take profit triggered – none
Trade gain = 12 Emini points
Trade gain in $ per contract = $ 600
The entry was on the blue circle on the left and the exit was on the second blue circle on the right.
Regards,
Marco Simioni
Nightly Patterns
Greetings traders,
Yesterday’s short trade – the entry was on February the 6th of 2020 – is described below:
Trade entry – Emini future price = 3334,75
Trade exit – Emini future price = 3354,75
Stop loss triggered – 20 Emini points
Take profit triggered – none
Trade loss = 20 Emini points
Trade loss in $ per contract = $ -1000
The entry was on the blue circle on the left and the exit was on the second blue circle on the top (stop loss hit). Today’s stock market open is on the third blue circle on the right.
Unfortunately, this is an interesting example of how stop loss orders sometimes can damage profitability.
Regards,
Marco Simioni
Nightly Patterns
Greetings traders,
Yesterday’s long trade – the entry was on February the 3rd of 2020 – is described below:
Trade entry – Emini future price = 3243,75
Trade exit – Emini future price = 3284,25
Stop loss triggered – none
Take profit triggered – 40,5 Emini points
Trade gain = 40,5 Emini points
Trade gain in $ per contract = $ 2025
The entry was on the blue circle on the left and the exit was on the first blue circle on the right (take profit hit). Today’s stock market open is on the second blue circle on the right.
This is one of my best trades ever.
Regards,
Marco Simioni
Nightly Patterns
Greetings traders,
Last Thursday’s trade – the entry was on January the 30th of 2020 – is described below:
Trade entry – Emini future price = 3289,5
Trade exit – Emini future price = 3275
Stop loss triggered – none
Take profit triggered – none
Trade loss = 14,5 Emini points
Trade loss in $ per contract = $ 725
The entry was on the blue circle on the left and the exit was on the blue circle on the right.
Anyway, the first blue bubble on the left highlights the 4.00 PM EST (stocks close) potential entry. Normally, we enter at 4.13 PM EST (futures close). If we had entered the trade 13 minutes earlier, the take profit order would have been hit.
Sometimes it’s better, sometimes not. It’s vital to choose always the same time, if you trade at 4.00 you trade always at 4.00, if you trade at 4.13 you always trade at 4.13.
That’s it.
Regards,
Marco Simioni
Nightly Patterns
Greetings traders,
Martin Luther King’s weekend trade, the entry was on January the 17th of 2020, is described below:
Trade entry – Emini future price = 3325,25
Trade exit – Emini future price = 3316,5
Stop loss triggered – none
Take profit triggered – none
Trade gain = 8,75 Emini points
Trade gain in $ per contract = $ 287,5
The entry was on the blue circle on the left and the exit was on the blue circle on the right.
Regards,
Marco Simioni
Nightly Patterns
Marco Simioni
NIGHTLY PATTERNS - Overnight Trading 