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6 crash nights down in a row – White Swan

May 13, 2019

There’s something out there… A White Swan is coming!

China has finally reacted to Trumps export duties. Is the commercial war starting today? Nobody knows… The only thing we know is what the markets are doing now: crashing overnight and going sideways or up intraday.

SPY gapped down for 6 nights in a row today. This is not unusual. What is completely new is that SPY lost about 5.81%, summing up all these 6 nights. This is a bearish record performance back to 1993. It has never happened for more than 26 years (since SPY inception).

It only happened once (March the 16, 2011) that it lost more than 4.5% but less than 4.75%. It has been followed by 4 up nights in a row with a total of 2.81% of return. I’ll keep it in mind for the next 4 nights.

I call these events “White Swan” because we know how they are and that they may happen in future. I would now say this to be a “Black Swan”. You should not be able to describe the Black ones before they happen… anyway for the White ones it should be easier!

Marco Simioni

Nightly Patterns

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  1. JT Croft permalink

    Hello Marco can you send a couple trade examples to take a look how the signals are executed The signal comes at market close to market open the next day You can trade the SPY or the ES? Thanks JT



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