NIGHTLY PATTERNS – Overnight Trading

It has been a boring December concerning overnight trading. I’ve been monitoring my patterns finder algo every night like always, but  there weren’t any patterns triggering or they were only mixed.

It doesn’t mean the algos aren’t working anymore, some sideline periods do exist.

Do you remember last lazy summer? It was just before a good profitable autumn.

Anyway, I want to discuss briefly why last night I didn’t send any alert:

• I had mixed seasonality.
• I had 9 bullish patterns triggering

Where’s the problem? I could have jumped in. But wait a minute, I looked carefully at the chart and look for a rare bar pattern in order to find one to confirm the action.

My backtesting work resulted in a very strong bearish pattern: very few rules, 4 instances, all of them bearish.

I discovered yesterday’s morning this rare bearish pattern:

O0<L1 – O1<L2 – O2>H3 – O3<C4 – L2>H3 (equity curve’s above)

Sometimes rare patterns win the battle between bulls and bears.

The excellent trade requires seasonality on the right side of the patterns triggering. Yesterday it wasn’t. And if I can find rare pattern triggering, I want it on the right side too. Otherwise, waiting on the sidelines is the rule.

This prudent behaviour prevent us from a little loss this morning.

Hope to see better price action later,

Marco Simioni

Nightly Patterns

I’ve been working on a few new collaborations this year, especially one with the Italian edition of Traders’ Magazine call “A Beautiful Night”. This requires prices of Nightly Patterns service being equal among all vendors. That’s why I must rise it to 797 euro for the yearly subscription and 75 euro for the monthly subscription.

Anyway, if you purchase a subscription before December the 31st 2019, you will be considered among my “old followers” and mantain the old Nightly Patterns prices yet!

Where are the intraday stock market edges? When should a trader be long or short?

Well, those aren’t easy questions. Intraday seasonality does exist. You can have a look at the previous quarter of an hour here.

Now, I’m writing down a simpler approach: I’m splitting the the stock market session in 15 minutes different periods and see what’s happening with them. I have data back to 28 September 2009: last 10 years of data exactly. Intraday data are very difficult to handle, that’s why I’m focusing only on the last 10 years.

I’m backtesting the ES future market.

Let’s have a look at this quarter: 11:00 – 11:15 AM EST.

The equity curve below shows a slightly bullish edge. Equity rises steadily at the beginning and then it goes down and up, up and down. This isn’t the idea setup for me.

If you had traded all those quarters of an hour at 11:00 AM EST blindly, going through wild moves, you would have earned about 6% going long on ES futures contract, during the last 10 years.

I’ll be back soon with another intraday seasonality study,

Marco Simioni

Nightly Patterns

Where are the intraday stock market edges? When should a trader be long or short?

Well, those aren’t easy questions. Intraday seasonality does exist. You can have a look at the previous quarter of an hour here.

Now, I’m writing down a simpler approach: I’m splitting the the stock market session in 15 minutes different periods and see what’s happening with them. I have data back to 28 September 2009: last 10 years of data exactly. Intraday data are very difficult to handle, that’s why I’m focusing only on the last 10 years.

I’m backtesting the ES future market.

Let’s have a look at this quarter: 10:45 – 11:00 AM EST.

The equity curve below shows a slightly bullish edge. Equity falls steadily at the early beginning, there is a serious counter trend up then though. This isn’t the idea setup for me.

If you had traded all those quarters of an hour at 10:45 AM EST blindly, you would have earned about 2% going long on ES futures contract, during the last 10 years.

I’ll be back soon with another intraday seasonality study,

Marco Simioni

Nightly Patterns

Where are the intraday stock market edges? When should a trader be long or short?

Well, those aren’t easy questions. Intraday seasonality does exist. You can have a look at the previous quarter of an hour here.

Now, I’m writing down a simpler approach: I’m splitting the the stock market session in 15 minutes different periods and see what’s happening with them. I have data back to 28 September 2009: last 10 years of data exactly. Intraday data are very difficult to handle, that’s why I’m focusing only on the last 10 years.

I’m backtesting the ES future market.

Let’s have a look at this quarter: 10:30 – 10:45 AM EST.

The equity curve below shows a bearish edge. Equity falls steadily through the years, there is a serious counter trend though. This is an extremely bearish quarter of an hour.

If you had traded all those quarters of an hour at 10:30 AM EST blindly, you would have earned about 20% going short on ES futures contract, during the last 10 years.

I’ll be back soon with another intraday seasonality study,

Marco Simioni

Nightly Patterns

Where are the intraday stock market edges? When should a trader be long or short?

Well, those aren’t easy questions. Intraday seasonality does exist. You can have a look at the previous quarter of an hour here.

Now, I’m writing down a simpler approach: I’m splitting the the stock market session in 15 minutes different periods and see what’s happening with them. I have data back to 28 September 2009: last 10 years of data exactly. Intraday data are very difficult to handle, that’s why I’m focusing only on the last 10 years.

I’m backtesting the ES future market.

Let’s have a look at this quarter: 10:15 – 10:30 AM EST.

The equity curve below shows a bullish edge. Equity rises steadily through the years, there are serious drawdown though. This is a very bullish quarter of an hour.

If you had traded all those quarters of an hour at 10:15 AM EST blindly, you would have earned about 14% (with many heart attacks here too) going long on ES futures contract, during the last 10 years.

I’ll be back soon with another intraday seasonality study,

Marco Simioni

Nightly Patterns

Where are the intraday stock market edges? When should a trader be long or short?

Well, those aren’t easy questions. Intraday seasonality does exist. You can have a look at the previous quarter of an hour here.

Now, I’m writing down a simpler approach: I’m splitting the the stock market session in 15 minutes different periods and see what’s happening with them. I have data back to 28 September 2009: last 10 years of data exactly. Intraday data are very difficult to handle, that’s why I’m focusing only on the last 10 years.

I’m backtesting the ES future market.

Let’s have a look at this quarter: 10:00 – 10:15 AM EST.

The equity curve below shows a mixed edge. There are steady up rushes and sharp down crashes. Well, stock markets regimes change over time. They can last for many years, forever, or change quickly to the opposite direction. The change is not easy to detect. This is a very wild quarter of an hour.

If you had traded all those quarters of an hour at 10:00 AM EST blindly, you would have earned about 4% (with many heart attacks here too) going long on ES futures contract, during the last 10 years.

I’ll be back soon with another intraday seasonality study,

Marco Simioni

Nightly Patterns

Where are the intraday stock market edges? When should a trader be long or short?

Well, those aren’t easy questions. Intraday seasonality does exist. You can have a look at the previous quarter of an hour here.

Now, I’m writing down a simpler approach: I’m splitting the the stock market session in 15 minutes different periods and see what’s happening with them. I have data back to 28 September 2009: last 10 years of data exactly. Intraday data are very difficult to handle, that’s why I’m focusing only on the last 10 years.

I’m backtesting the ES future market.

Let’s have a look at this quarter: 9:45 – 10:00 AM EST.

The equity curve below shows a mixed edge. There are sharp up rushes and sharp down crashes. Well, stock markets regimes change over time. They can last for many years, forever, or change quickly to the opposite direction. The change is not easy to detect. This is a very wild quarter of an hour.

If you had traded all those quarters of an hour at 9:45 AM EST blindly, you would have been at break-even (with many heart attacks) going long on ES futures contract, during the last 10 years.

I’ll be back soon with another intraday seasonality study,

Marco Simioni

Nightly Patterns

Where are the intraday stock market edges? When should a trader be long or short?

Well, those aren’t easy questions. Intraday seasonality does exist. You can have a look at the previous quarter of an hour here.

Now, I’m writing down a simpler approach: I’m splitting the the stock market session in 15 minutes different periods and see what’s happening with them. I have data back to 28 September 2009: last 10 years of data exactly. Intraday data are very difficult to handle, that’s why I’m focusing only on the last 10 years.

I’m backtesting the ES future market.

Let’s have a look at this quarter: 9:30 – 9:45 AM EST.

The equity curve below shows a mixed edge. The chart shows a bullish trend during the first 5 years and a bearish trend during the last 5 years. What does it mean? Well, stock markets regimes change over time. They can last for many years, forever, or change quickly to the opposite direction. The change is not easy to detect. Should we bet short? Well, the second bearish trend could be solid enough…

If you had traded all those quarters of an hour at 9:30 AM EST blindly, you would have been at break-even going long on ES futures contract, during the last 10 years.

I’ll be back soon with another intraday seasonality study,

Marco Simioni

Nightly Patterns

Where are the intraday stock market edges? When should a trader be long or short?

Well, those aren’t easy questions. Intraday seasonality does exist. You can have a look at the previous quarter of an hour here.

Now, I’m writing down a simpler approach: I’m splitting the the stock market session in 15 minutes different periods and see what’s happening with them. I have data back to 28 September 2009: last 10 years of data exactly. Intraday data are very difficult to handle, that’s why I’m focusing only on the last 10 years.

I’m backtesting the ES future market.

Let’s have a look at this quarter: 9:15 – 9:30 AM EST.

The equity curve below shows a mildly bullish edge. The chart shows a bearish trend during the first 3 years and a strong bullish trend during the last 7 years. What does it mean? Well, stock markets regimes change over time. They can last for many years, forever, or change quickly to the opposite direction. The change is not easy to detect. Should we bet long? Well, the second bullish trend looks to be solid enough…

If you had traded all those quarters of an hour at 9:15 AM EST blindly, you would have earned about 10% going long on ES futures contract, during the last 10 years.

I’ll be back soon with another intraday seasonality study,

Marco Simioni

Nightly Patterns