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Welcome to Nightly Patterns! – Overnight Trading

This futures trading room focusses on high leverage Overnight Trading with futures:

“Just open the trade at the close and, if not stopped, close it at the open.”

One of the main advantages of the Nightly Patterns trading style is that it gives traders the opportunity to trade at a specific time, avoiding constant market screening. Furthermore, it allows traders to keep their money in cash during the day, making it possible to add Overnight Trading to other Intraday Trading strategies. Its unique time horizon makes this trading style completely uncorrelated to most other strategies, leading to superior portfolio diversification.

To download the results excel sheet follow this link: TRADING RESULTS

Have a look at my over 400 PATTERNS library following this link: PATTERNS LIBRARY

This picture shows NIGHTLY PATTERNS’ backtested equity growth back to 1993:

SYSTEMS_EVENTS

Below you can see total gains and net gains with live trades since October 2012:

 

4-2-2020

I considered Interactive Brokers fees of $0.85 per trade per contract.

If you find something better, (including costs and fees) just write me. I’m always looking for new strategies to add to my portfolio.

If you want to subscribe NIGHTLY PATTERNS follow the procedure here:

SUBSCRIPTION BUTTON

If you are interested in Nightly Patterns’ KNOWLEDGE,

here are my Quantitative Guidebooks:

SYSTEMS

“I search nightly patterns like people in the north look for Aurora Borealis.”

AUSTRALIA-ANTARCTICA-AURORA AUSTRALIS

GLOBAL TRADE TITAN AWARD

Nightly Patterns belongs to the 10 best  sites

out of more than 1358 global futures trading rooms

again in 2018, since 2014

TTW 2015 bb

WHO ARE THE GLOBAL TRADE TITANS?

Check them all at:

WWW.GLOBALTRADETITANS.COM

I swing traded as a PROTRADER at:

VERIFIED INVESTING

I trade VIX etps at:

BACKTESTINGVIX

and GOLD at

GOLD TRADING GOLD

and my full trading strategies portfolio:

QUANTFOR


MY VISITORS GLOBE – WHERE DO TRADERS COME FROM?

Map

QuantFor reaction to recent Black Swan

Quantfor april

Greetings traders!

Here you can look at how QuantFor portfolio of strategies reacted to recent spring huge rise in volatility and ranges.

Remember! QuantFor main goal is to achieve CAGR above 60% and drawdowns below 10%. It’s not magic but it looks like.

Nightly Patterns perfectly detected the change in market regime and now is trading with the leveraged etfs version as we need in this regime.

Gold Minings system, experienced the worst turmoil but it’s coming out of the drawdown.

The Vix system perfectly managed to avoid the worst days and it’s still on track.

The Weekly portfolio showed is in a small drawdown, it’s a perfect time to jump in it.

The Adaptive portfolio showed a good strong return in January and March, highlithing the robustness of the strategies behind it.

Globally we are up 6,57% on the first three months, with the stock markets down on the white rabbit hole.

April is going well too.

If you haven’t joying QuantFor yet, please note that I have managed to reduce the capital requirements to only $92500 !!!

If you are interested in QuantFor service, just write me at:

quantfor@hotmail.com

Hope you will enjoy QuantFor trading,

Marco Simioni

Below 200 SMA overnight trading track record

below

Here we are. Deeply below the 200 SMA. You can find the Excel sheet and download it in the “trading results” page.

We had a bad luck start but we are coming back. Can you imagine the above numbers trading the Emini? It’s too dangerous, that’s why we need the leveraged etfs. If you’re still out, jump on board, you’re still in time!

Marco Simioni

Nightly patterns

 

Trading below 200 SMA – Overnight Trading SSO and SDS Etfs

swans

What can we do if the bearish regime in the stock markets persists below 200 SMA? Well, the first and easy take away idea is to stay out in cash until the stock market (Emini, SPY, SPX) comes back above the 200 SMA.

If you remember from my stop loss tactic here, and here, my 1,3% stop loss is considered a “disaster stop loss” only above 200 SMA when the volatily and ranges are not as wild as below the 200 SMA where it becomes a normal stop loss.

Well, since 2009 we had always hit and run brief periods below the 200 SMA and we simply waited out of the market.

But now, the outlook is different. It’s probable we will face a long period, maybe many months or more than a year below 200 SMA. To manage overnight trading safely the US stock market, we could simply move from Emini to Micro futures, as I’ve previously mentioned in past articles.

But there’s a big problem with that: ranges are wild in the Micro futures too, and our stop loss trigger frequency would remain the same, only with a smaller amount of equity invested, halting Nightly Patterns performances too much. There would be too many profitable nights turned into stopped out trades.

The only way is to exploit Etfs. They aren’t trading in the overnight session, so no stop loss orders is active. I know, I know you would trade UPRO 3x leverage etf. But it’s too much. It can loose easily more than 20% in a single night (have a look at this month performances). Too much. We must count for the Black Swan too:

on the weekend between Friday the 13th and Monday the 16th of 2020, SPY opened with a gap down of 10,45%. Too much to be 3X fully invested. That’s why we need lower leverage with:

SSO (Proshares Ultra S&P 500) and SDS (Proshares Ultra Short S&P 500) Etfs

or for prudent traders, they can trade the SPY directly.

I’m trading 100% of my Nightly Patterns dedicated capital in both cases.

If you have any questions, I’ll be glad to answer,

Marco Simioni

Nightly Patterns

Coronavirus, the Black Swan is coming out of the water… 1929 is finally here? #5

Black swan out of the water

I can see it clearly now… It’s out of the water, It’s a Black Swan!

These are the most dangerous days to trade. It’s a month without trading at all. We are waiting out of the battle. And we are not losing money. Don’t get bored!

There is no risk management strategy holding with a minus 5% gap down on Monday morning when the floor opens. A big jump down and the CME stops trading at all.

I know you wish you were short on the weekend, but I’m not a magician!

I’m attaching below my 45 rolling days indicator chart. Please note how we break the 2008 and 2001 big lows! We are about at -30 zone now. Nearly twice the deep value of 2001 bear market. When they break they break hard!

ROLLING 45 23-3-2020

What does it means? I think the markets thinks about something that has nothing to compare with 2001 and 2008 bear markets. Something much more deep and dangerous.

With today’s low we reached -36% since February’s all time highs and VIX reached 80 last week.

Please remember 1929… and don’t get bored! I’m discussing soon the option of trading the Micro Future instead of the Emini.

Marco Simioni

Nightly Patterns

Is 1929 here again? Coronavirus, the Black Swan is here… Is it a correction or a bear market? #4

FINAL BOTTOM

Well, we’re out out the market watching the crash from the safe window and getting bored. Bears are overcoming the bulls. It was a 123,5 ES points breaking gap when futures started trading again this morning, we avoided it, don’t get bored! I know you wish you were short…

Do you remember last Friday’s article and my rolling indicator? With today’s breaking gap we crashed all the records below -16%!

ROLLING 45-1

Nobody can show you where are the stock markets going for sure. But it’s funny to guess it.

I’ve circled with the blue balls the other times the overnight rolling indicator I’ve described here. The above chart collects monthly data from 1993. One blue ball is in the middle of the 2001/2002 bear market. Two balls are at the beginning and at the end of 2008/2009 bear market. And the last one was back in 2011 late summer.

Are we in a bear market or in a correction? Well, technically today we got as far as -20,5% from last all time high. So, yes we are in bear market.

The stock market tested last week the 200 SMA on the daily chart and today it decided to go deeply lower it. So yes we are in a bear market.

The VIX is roaring above 50 and its futures term structure is deeply on backwardation so yes we are in a bear market.

How long shall it last? Nobody knows. From a few days to a several months, maybe more than a year. Let’s see and make some funny (hopefully wrong) forecasts.

Have you seen the blue ball on the right bottom of the chart?

You’re right! There we should go to have something similar to 1929, a 90% drawdown from about 3400 all time high of the ES future.

And remember guys, in 1929 we haven’t computers, internet and algos fighting, there were only people shouting prices for orders… So is it possible to go lower than 2008 big lows? Definitely yes. It is possible. Is it probable? It depends on the crowds.

Have you seen that smooth trendline starting from the 2008 lows?

There’s an old say: every trendline must be broken…

Marco Simioni

Nightly Patterns

P.S. And yes, don’t worry! I’m still alive, healthy and safe here in Italy! 😉

 

 

 

 

 

Wild and Wide Range Overnight Trading

45 ROLLING

Coronavirus is driving the stock markets down and down, crashing all the algos.

When the overnight range gets to very extreme levels there aren’t any stats working as usual.

The most dangerous factor is huge volatility that triggers stop loss orders much more frequently. As my primary goal is to keep my stop loss triggers frequency at minimum level, I have many filters that keep me out of the market, though there are many patterns triggering night after night.

When the stock market is in a wild regime traders must be extremely selective and trade only the trades showing the highest odds. That’s what I do at Nightly Patterns.

One of the indicators that help me staying out at the window in the corner is the rolling sum of the last 45 days SPY overnight returns. Normal levels for this indicator are +5% / -5%.

Now we are below -9%. I recorded the minimum level at -15,91% the 21st of September 2001 in the middle of the Dot Com Crash.

Looking at the chart above, we can easily show other 6 times (big spiking valleys) with lower values than today’s one.

There’s a lot of room for other big bearish overnight sessions yet.

Marco Simioni

Nightly Patterns

Coronavirus White Swan is becoming a Black Swan? #3

coronavirus

What should only be there, now it’s here. Well, it has been quite a shocking weekend with Coronavirus new from very very close places to me. I live near Venice and now, Italy has become the third place with highest virus numbers.

Perfect time for writing and staying at home safe like in a castle. Well, I think if it’s not black yet, the swan is dirty grey now.

Well, the markets are believing the colour of the Swan is changing now. Let’s see.

What’s happened the night after a more than 3% drop in SPY since 1993?

Here’s the equity curve…

3 percent

That’s an easy question. All the following nights (10 instances) the market had dropped.

I’ve got many bullish patterns triggering but the price behaviour is too dangerous with this scary pattern described above: 10 bearish nights out of 10 since 1993.

Let’s wait in cash! It’s too early for the bulls. The bears are holding the game.

Marco Simioni

Nightly Patterns

 

February the 19th 2020 Overnight Trade Overview

19-2-2020

Greetings traders,

Last Wednesday’s short trade – the entry was on February the 19th of 2020 – is described below:

Trade entry  – Emini future price = 3387,5

Trade exit – Emini future price = 3379,5

Stop loss triggered – none

Take profit triggered – none

Trade gain = 8 Emini points

Trade gain in $ per contract = $ 400

The entry was on the blue circle on the left and the exit was on the second blue circle on the right.

If you like to study deeper overnight trading results, please download my historical live trading results sheet here.

Regards,

Marco Simioni

Nightly Patterns

February the 12th 2020 Overnight Trade Overview

12-2-2020

Greetings traders,

Last Wednesday’s short trade – the entry was on February the 12th of 2020 – is described below:

Trade entry  – Emini future price = 3380,5

Trade exit – Emini future price = 3362,25

Stop loss triggered – none

Take profit triggered – none

Trade gain = 18,25 Emini points

Trade gain in $ per contract = $ 912,5

The entry was on the blue circle on the left and the exit was on the second blue circle on the right.

If you like to study deeper overnight trading results, please download my historical live trading results sheet here.

Regards,

Marco Simioni

Nightly Patterns

February the 11th Overnight Trade Overview

11-2-2020

Greetings traders,

Tuesday’s short trade – the entry was on February the 11th of 2020 – is described below:

Trade entry  – Emini future price = 3357

Trade exit – Emini future price = 3373,5

Stop loss triggered – none

Take profit triggered – none

Trade loss = 16,5 Emini points

Trade loss in $ per contract = $ -825

The entry was on the blue circle on the left and the exit was on the second blue circle on the right.

Regards,

Marco Simioni

Nightly Patterns

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